Gulf Oil Exports Growth in July Faces Slowdown Amid Escalating Conflict

Shipping data reveals Gulf states boosted crude oil and condensate exports in early July, reaching highest levels since before the Iran war in late February; however, flows through the Strait of Hormuz now slow amid escalating conflict. Kepler data showed oil and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran rose approximately 16 percent over June's average to 12 million barrels per day in early July. Vortexa's estimate for this period was higher, at 13.06 million barrels per day. Kepler noted the early July increase was led by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. Vortexa indicated Iraq had the largest monthly rise, as UAE exports fell from June records. The Gulf export surge lowered oil prices, easing supply concerns after a temporary US-Iran deal in mid-June to reopen the Strait, a vital global oil and gas shipping route. The agreement collapsed in early July due to waterway management disagreements. **Red Sea Concerns and Impact** Hormuz shipments are already decreasing amid escalating strikes, with just three commodity tankers passing Thursday, the lowest daily count since May. Kepler analyst Johannes Ruppel stated slowing activity suggests countries will be forced to cut production and crude oil shipments. Even after this recovery, exports remained about 32 percent below their February pre-war peak of 17.6 million barrels per day. Reuters sources reported Thursday that Iran directed Yemen's Houthi forces to disrupt Red Sea traffic if the US targets Iran's energy infrastructure, threatening global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia shifted most energy exports to Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Kepler data shows 75% of the Kingdom's crude and condensate exports (5.29 million bpd) departed via Yanbu since early July.