Shifts in U.S. Policy Present New Challenges for Iraq

The Iraqi government faces new challenges in its relations with Washington following the results of the U.S. midterm elections, which led to Democratic control of both the House and Senate. These developments raise questions about the impact of the new political balance in Congress on the U.S. administration's policy toward Iraq, especially regarding security cooperation, financial sanctions, and Iranian influence. A report indicates that the shift in congressional majority may grant Democrats greater oversight over the administration's performance and the ability to open investigations into its policies, as well as influence legislation and government spending, potentially affecting the nature of U.S. dealings with Iraqi issues. An Iraqi political coalition is closely monitoring the U.S. election outcomes, anticipating possible escalations in attacks by some armed factions or their exploitation of Washington's internal conflicts to expand their activities. These assessments reflect concerns that Washington's preoccupation with congressional conflicts could reduce its focus on external affairs, though this does not necessarily imply eased pressure on Baghdad regarding curbing the influence of armed factions linked to Iran. A former Iraqi researcher in Washington believes the Iraqi prime minister needs to adopt a new strategy in dealing with the United States, emphasizing that Washington is not limited to the president alone, and that the congressional shift enhances institutional roles in decision-making. Since the current U.S. president took office, pressures have increased on Iraq to distance itself from Iran and limit the influence of associated armed groups. Conversely, Iranian officials and Iraqi faction leaders welcomed the election results, viewing them as a defeat for U.S. policies. Although Congress holds legislative and oversight powers impacting foreign policy, aid, and security cooperation, the U.S. president retains a primary role in shaping and executing foreign policy, meaning the change in congressional majority does not automatically transfer the authority to define the U.S. stance on Iraq to the Democrats. The new majority is expected to begin its duties with the congressional session starting next January, making the effects of the election results on U.S. policy toward Iraq gradual rather than immediate. Key issues linking Baghdad and Washington include the future of armed factions, U.S. sanctions, and security cooperation following the conclusion of the international coalition's mission against ISIS. In April, the U.S. Treasury targeted leaders of Iran-aligned Iraqi factions accused of responsibility for attacks against U.S. targets, and Washington used financial tools to pressure Baghdad, including suspending dollar shipments and measures tied to security cooperation, before resuming some currency shipments in July. An Iraqi media professor warned against basing government positions on expectations linked to Democratic victories, stressing that this development will not alter the fundamental U.S. policy toward Tehran, even if priorities are reordered. He added that pressures on Iraq will persist as long as the conflict between Washington and Tehran continues, reducing the likelihood of significant change in U.S. dealings with Baghdad simply due to a shift in congressional majority. The U.S. and Iraqi sides agreed to end the international coalition's mission against ISIS by 2026 and transition to a bilateral security cooperation format, amid regional tensions and attacks by armed groups on U.S. interests, leaving the future of military presence and security cooperation a matter of dispute. Washington is expected to raise its demands on Baghdad in the upcoming phase, while the Iraqi government seeks to ensure continued dollar shipments and possibly halt sanctions on Iraqi banks and companies, making the coming period a test of the government's ability to balance the requirements of its relationship with the United States and pressures related to Iranian influence.