International Energy Agency Forecasts Significant Global Oil Supply Decline by 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest monthly report, projected a decline in global oil supply by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during 2026, reaching 102 million bpd. These forecasts emerge amidst ongoing challenges impacting global energy supplies. However, the agency indicated a potential rise in oil supply in 2027, reaching 110.3 million bpd, attributed to the continued repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz closure on supply chains. The report further detailed that global oil supplies increased by 2.4 million bpd in July 2026, totaling 101.5 million bpd, supported by Gulf states' efforts to restore their oil production levels. Conversely, the region's exports sharply decreased during the same month due to renewed maritime transport issues; total supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes fell by 2.1 million bpd, reaching 15 million bpd. In a related context, the IEA anticipated a decrease in global oil demand by 1.6 million bpd during 2026, touching 103.288 million bpd, compared to 104.844 million bpd recorded in 2025. This reduction is attributed to the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising prices, which have curtailed consumption levels. Regarding OPEC+ group production, the report showed an increase of 1.15 million bpd in July 2026. However, the group remained behind its target levels by 6.02 million bpd, with actual production at 28.06 million bpd against a target of 34.08 million bpd. The report also revealed a decline in Russia's exports of oil and refined products in July by 8.3%, reaching 6.97 million bpd.